Sat, Oct 23, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Anaheim Ducks 3, Minnesota Wild 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 27 | 19 | 06 | 02 | 324 |
| MIN | 211 | 115 | 05 | 15 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:18ANARickard RakellAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 7:11MINBrandon DuhaimeAssists: Nico Sturm, Mathew Dumba · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 9:05MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Alex Goligoski, Jordan Greenway · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 11:11ANATroy TerryAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Ryan Getzlaf · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 1:49ANARickard RakellPPAssists: Jamie Drysdale, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 11:56MINJon MerrillAssists: Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 4:47MINRyan HartmanGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:22MINKirill Kaprizov: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 5:22ANAMaxime Comtois: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 18:05MINKirill Kaprizov: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:29ANAMaxime Comtois: Interference2 min
- P2 0:47MINAlex Goligoski: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:59ANARyan Getzlaf: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:35MINRyan Hartman: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 11:56ANAMaxime Comtois: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 4:56ANAHampus Lindholm: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:56MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Embellishment2 min
- OT 1:05ANAHampus Lindholm: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundeström won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Henrique – Rakell – Zegras12:53
xG 0.48–0.48 (50%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Grant – Deslauriers – Groulx3:50
xG 0.00–0.07 (4%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Silfverberg – Steel – Lundeström8:01
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Terry – Comtois8:43
xG 0.22–0.47 (32%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Drysdale14:04
xG 0.63–0.34 (65%)attempts 16–12goals 2–1
- Fowler – Manson13:02
xG 0.10–0.06 (62%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Manson – Lindholm3:42
xG 0.02–0.16 (13%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Duhaime – Sturm5:39
xG 0.76–0.22 (78%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Rask – Gaudreau – Fiala9:00
xG 0.31–0.05 (86%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hartman – Greenway10:56
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–3goals 2–0
- Zuccarello – Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov9:40
xG 0.16–0.41 (28%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Merrill13:21
xG 0.87–0.13 (87%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Spurgeon13:29
xG 0.49–0.13 (79%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Brodin – Dumba16:07
xG 0.26–0.60 (30%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).