Sat, Oct 23, 2021·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Nashville Predators 4, Winnipeg Jets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 18 | 16 | 216 | 430 |
| WPG | 18 | 315 | 26 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:15NSHColton SissonsAssists: Tanner Jeannot, Nick Cousins · Snap, 0.28 xG1–0
- P1 2:42WPGAdam LowryAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Jansen Harkins · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 1:11WPGPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Nate Schmidt, Evgeny Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–2
- P2 2:34WPGPaul StastnyPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Neal Pionk · Backhand, 0.30 xG1–3
- P2 13:27NSHNick CousinsPPAssists: Tommy Novak, Philip Tomasino · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 19:49WPGKristian VesalainenAssists: Nate Schmidt, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 3:10NSHRoman JosiAssists: Dante Fabbro, Tommy Novak · Slap, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 3:36WPGPaul StastnyGWGAssists: Neal Pionk, Brenden Dillon · Deflected, 0.09 xG3–5
- P3 6:14WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Nate Schmidt, Nikolaj Ehlers · Slap, 0.12 xG3–6
- P3 13:41NSHPhilip TomasinoPPAssists: Nick Cousins, Tommy Novak · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:14WPGJosh Morrissey: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 18:18WPGNathan Beaulieu: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:18NSHTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 1:28NSHDante Fabbro: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:41WPGBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:37NSHBen Harpur: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:16NSHBen Harpur: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 9:53WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:07WPGBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Sissons – Jeannot5:18
xG 0.42–0.08 (84%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Granlund – Trenin – Kunin6:06
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Granlund – Kunin – Tolvanen3:36
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Novak – Tolvanen – Tomasino5:10
xG 0.15–0.15 (51%)attempts 8–2goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro14:07
xG 0.95–0.77 (55%)attempts 22–10goals 2–2
- Josi – Ekholm3:15
xG 0.05–0.11 (30%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Carrier12:11
xG 0.31–0.52 (37%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Harkins – Vesalainen10:19
xG 1.02–0.18 (85%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Connor – Svechnikov – Dubois11:44
xG 0.61–0.41 (60%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Stastny – Copp – Ehlers13:14
xG 0.66–0.57 (53%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Pionk14:40
xG 1.30–0.44 (75%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Schmidt – Morrissey17:22
xG 0.90–0.39 (70%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- DeMelo – Beaulieu2:46
xG 0.09–0.03 (77%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).