Sat, Oct 23, 2021·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Vancouver Canucks 4, Seattle Kraken 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 09 | 17 | 310 | 426 |
| SEA | 112 | 012 | 17 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:56SEAVince DunnAssists: Adam Larsson, Joonas Donskoi · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 11:09VANBo HorvatAssists: Conor Garland · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 5:09SEAMark GiordanoAssists: Jared McCann, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 12:52VANBo HorvatPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–2
- P3 15:58VANConor GarlandGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 19:00VANJustin DowlingENAssists: J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.74 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:08SEAJared McCann: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:53VANJuho Lammikko: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:47SEACarson Soucy: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:17VANQuinn Hughes: Interference2 min
- P2 17:56SEAJeremy Lauzon: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:34SEACarson Soucy: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Dickinson – Lammikko3:48
xG 0.13–0.04 (76%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Highmore – Hoglander4:14
xG 0.13–0.05 (73%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Garland11:39
xG 0.50–0.47 (52%)attempts 13–11goals 2–1
- Chiasson – Dowling – Lammikko3:21
xG 0.01–0.09 (11%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Myers – Hughes2:46
xG 0.05–0.05 (51%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Burroughs – Rathbone9:03
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Myers – Ekman-Larsson15:01
xG 0.34–0.37 (48%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSheahan – Appleton – Bastian7:06
xG 0.43–0.08 (84%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Schwartz – Gourde11:23
xG 0.61–0.28 (68%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Eberle – Wennberg – McCann8:42
xG 0.42–0.44 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Donskoi – Tanev – Geekie6:46
xG 0.04–0.16 (21%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Oleksiak13:56
xG 1.07–0.27 (80%)attempts 20–15goals 1–1
- Soucy – Dunn11:20
xG 0.27–0.11 (72%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Larsson – Lauzon15:02
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).