Sun, Oct 24, 2021·TD Garden, Boston
San Jose Sharks 3, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 111 | 05 | 210 | 326 |
| BOS | 311 | 111 | 012 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:28BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 3:18BOSDerek ForbortAssists: Brad Marchand, Connor Clifton · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
- P1 16:12BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Slap, 0.16 xG0–3
- P1 16:44SJSJasper WeatherbyAssists: Jonah Gadjovich, Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P2 5:41BOSJake DeBruskGWGAssists: Oskar Steen, Derek Forbort · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 13:19SJSTomas HertlAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Alexander Barabanov · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 15:08SJSTimo MeierAssists: Logan Couture, Jonathan Dahlen · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:44BOSTomas Nosek: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:01BOSCharlie McAvoy: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:59SJSBrent Burns: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:29BOSConnor Clifton: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:29SJSNick Bonino: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:29SJSNick Bonino: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:02SJSJake Middleton: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:02BOSTrent Frederic: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:48SJSMario Ferraro: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Hertl – Balcers – Barabanov7:09
xG 0.04–0.04 (48%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Bonino – Nieto – Labanc6:45
xG 0.12–0.23 (33%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Hertl – Labanc – Barabanov2:38
xG 0.07–0.24 (22%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Gadjovich – Weatherby6:29
xG 0.05–0.27 (16%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Karlsson – Ferraro2:10
xG 0.02–0.00 (90%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Simek9:48
xG 0.12–0.25 (33%)attempts 5–6goals 1–2
- Karlsson – Middleton11:40
xG 0.15–0.44 (25%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak12:23
xG 0.58–0.14 (80%)attempts 14–9goals 2–1
- Frederic – Studnicka – Kuhlman8:31
xG 0.28–0.04 (88%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Haula – DeBrusk – Steen10:02
xG 0.26–0.04 (87%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Coyle – Hall – Nosek10:34
xG 0.29–0.16 (65%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy15:15
xG 0.75–0.05 (93%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Forbort – Clifton10:26
xG 0.46–0.09 (83%)attempts 12–7goals 2–1
- Reilly – Carlo12:25
xG 0.21–0.17 (56%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).