Sun, Oct 24, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Nashville Predators 5, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 311 | 28 | 010 | 529 |
| MIN | 09 | 211 | 015 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:45NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 5:54NSHRyan JohansenPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–0
- P1 12:25NSHRyan JohansenGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 11:30MINNick BjugstadAssists: Jon Merrill · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 13:15NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Roman Josi, Matt Duchene · Deflected, 0.11 xG4–1
- P2 18:35NSHTanner JeannotAssists: Yakov Trenin, Colton Sissons · Tip-in, 0.07 xG5–1
- P2 19:57MINNico SturmAssists: Brandon Duhaime · Backhand, 0.21 xG5–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:00MINDmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 5:13MINJared Spurgeon: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 6:52NSHMatt Duchene: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:47MINBrandon Duhaime: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:14MINMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:46NSHMikael Granlund: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:29MINKevin Fiala: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 4:37NSHPhilip Tomasino: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:04NSHNick Cousins: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:08NSHColton Sissons: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:12MINMats Zuccarello: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hartman won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Granlund – Forsberg6:55
xG 0.92–0.02 (98%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot7:53
xG 0.59–0.16 (79%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Cousins – Novak – Tomasino4:56
xG 0.16–0.10 (61%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Duchene – Johansen – Kunin3:40
xG 0.10–0.09 (53%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro16:14
xG 1.15–0.49 (70%)attempts 14–20goals 2–0
- Ekholm – Carrier10:06
xG 0.64–0.39 (62%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Borowiecki – Benning8:13
xG 0.07–0.35 (17%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Duhaime – Sturm6:53
xG 0.49–0.20 (71%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov2:04
xG 0.29–0.27 (52%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hartman – Greenway5:12
xG 0.08–0.16 (33%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek2:39
xG 0.01–0.16 (5%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba11:03
xG 0.53–0.13 (80%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Merrill11:08
xG 0.60–0.56 (51%)attempts 17–6goals 2–1
- Goligoski – Dumba2:27
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).