Mon, Oct 25, 2021·Madison Square Garden, New York
Calgary Flames 5, New York Rangers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 115 | 110 | 312 | 537 |
| NYR | 07 | 011 | 111 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:50CGYChris TanevAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 2:09CGYAndrew MangiapaneGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.16 xG2–0
- P3 5:25NYRKevin RooneyAssists: Dryden Hunt, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–1
- P3 8:13CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Mikael Backlund, Tyler Pitlick · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 11:32CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Blake Coleman, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 19:55CGYAndrew MangiapanePPAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Dillon Dube · Wrist, 0.31 xG5–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:23NYRJacob Trouba: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:23CGYBrett Ritchie: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:45CGYMikael Backlund: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:09NYRChris Kreider: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 3:20CGYOliver Kylington: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:24NYRFilip Chytil: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Pitlick – Coleman10:52
xG 0.66–0.38 (63%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Ritchie – Mangiapane – Dube9:03
xG 0.76–0.67 (53%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Lewis – Lucic – Monahan8:41
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk10:37
xG 0.48–0.56 (46%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Kylington14:29
xG 0.94–0.22 (81%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Andersson18:02
xG 1.16–1.20 (49%)attempts 19–22goals 2–0
- Gudbranson – Välimäki13:29
xG 0.26–0.80 (25%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Goodrow – Panarin12:59
xG 0.78–0.41 (66%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Blais – Chytil – Lafrenière4:04
xG 0.33–0.17 (67%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Blais – Hunt – Rooney2:08
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Hunt – Rooney2:08
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller16:03
xG 1.63–0.52 (76%)attempts 22–13goals 1–1
- Nemeth – Fox2:20
xG 0.10–0.25 (27%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Lundkvist11:13
xG 0.50–0.67 (43%)attempts 8–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).