Mon, Oct 25, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Los Angeles Kings 0, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 07 | 012 | 015 | 034 |
| STL | 018 | 03 | 314 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 3:08STLVladimir TarasenkoGWGAssists: Torey Krug, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P3 15:31STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 18:45STLDavid PerronENAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.50 xG0–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:17LAKVladimir Tkachev: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:21STLJake Neighbours: Interference2 min
- P3 4:54STLBrayden Schenn: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:44STLPavel Buchnevich: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:16LAKAnze Kopitar: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Arvidsson13:34
xG 0.58–0.25 (70%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Danault – Iafallo – Kaliyev10:22
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Tkachev – Moore – Kupari8:37
xG 0.14–0.08 (65%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Kempe – Grundstrom – Vilardi6:41
xG 0.16–0.55 (22%)attempts 3–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Bjornfot16:02
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Edler – Strand3:41
xG 0.13–0.05 (73%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Edler – Walker5:50
xG 0.06–0.18 (24%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Barbashev – Thomas10:52
xG 0.61–0.31 (66%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Kostin6:19
xG 0.30–0.08 (80%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Neal – Perron – O'Reilly4:54
xG 0.26–0.08 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Neal – Bozak – Neighbours6:06
xG 0.14–0.11 (56%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Parayko7:06
xG 0.48–0.21 (70%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Faulk – Krug12:12
xG 0.57–0.32 (65%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Scandella – Parayko12:08
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).