Tue, Oct 26, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Colorado Avalanche 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 210 | 09 | 110 | 329 |
| COL | 010 | 18 | 09 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:00VGKChandler StephensonAssists: Brayden McNabb, Daniil Miromanov · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 9:37VGKReilly SmithSHGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 19:23COLCale MakarAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 19:30VGKEvgenii DadonovENAssists: Keegan Kolesar, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.80 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:27VGKNicolas Hague: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:29VGKNicolas Hague: Holding2 min
- P1 13:02COLLogan O'Connor: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:52COLMikko Rantanen: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 18:45COLJack Johnson: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 18:45COLJack Johnson: Interference5 min
- P2 18:45COLJack Johnson: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:45VGKNicolas Roy: Instigator2 min
- P2 18:45VGKNicolas Roy: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:45VGKNicolas Roy: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStephenson – Carrier – Krebs10:45
xG 0.47–0.11 (82%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Kolesar – Leschyshyn2:36
xG 0.20–0.02 (91%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Kolesar – Roy7:56
xG 0.06–0.16 (28%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Janmark – Howden – Leschyshyn3:41
xG 0.01–0.14 (10%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Miromanov10:17
xG 0.57–0.18 (76%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Theodore – Coghlan5:54
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore3:32
xG 0.05–0.23 (18%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:11
xG 0.61–0.21 (74%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Jost – Ranta – O'Connor4:53
xG 0.38–0.02 (96%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Compher8:20
xG 0.12–0.20 (37%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMakar – Byram14:08
xG 0.68–0.21 (76%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Johnson – Murray4:50
xG 0.41–0.06 (88%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Byram3:31
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).