Tue, Oct 26, 2021·Honda Center, Anaheim
Winnipeg Jets 4, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 06 | 110 | 39 | 425 |
| ANA | 013 | 115 | 27 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:07WPGEvgeny SvechnikovAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 5:04ANASonny MilanoAssists: Trevor Zegras · Slap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 1:39ANAJosh MansonAssists: Isac Lundeström, Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 5:24WPGAndrew CoppAssists: Paul Stastny, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 12:15ANATrevor ZegrasAssists: Sonny Milano · Snap, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 18:40WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 18:59WPGNikolaj EhlersGWGAssists: Neal Pionk, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:52WPGNeal Pionk: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:45ANAJosh Manson: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:18WPGRiley Nash: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:43WPGAndrew Copp: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Copp won the faceoff against Zegras
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Copp – Ehlers13:31
xG 0.79–0.44 (64%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Connor – Svechnikov – Dubois12:37
xG 0.89–0.54 (62%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Lowry – Harkins – Vesalainen10:57
xG 0.00–0.72 (0%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Morrissey17:28
xG 1.03–0.92 (53%)attempts 19–20goals 0–1
- DeMelo – Beaulieu3:27
xG 0.05–0.10 (33%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pionk15:41
xG 0.45–0.63 (42%)attempts 13–9goals 2–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Terry – Comtois11:07
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 11–4goals 0–2
- Henrique – Rakell – Zegras12:12
xG 0.77–0.51 (60%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Carrick – Groulx7:23
xG 0.23–0.31 (43%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Milano – Lundeström8:41
xG 0.42–0.63 (40%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Benoit13:54
xG 0.49–0.28 (63%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Fowler – Manson14:25
xG 1.14–0.94 (55%)attempts 15–16goals 2–0
- Lindholm – Drysdale18:00
xG 0.81–0.66 (55%)attempts 16–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).