Tue, Oct 26, 2021·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Montréal Canadiens 1, Seattle Kraken 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 08 | 07 | 124 |
| SEA | 211 | 27 | 18 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:02SEAJordan EberleAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 11:37MTLMike HoffmanAssists: Nick Suzuki, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 15:08SEABrandon TanevGWGAssists: Jamie Oleksiak, Jared McCann · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 6:56SEAYanni GourdeAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Jeremy Lauzon · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 8:53SEABrandon TanevAssists: Yanni Gourde, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 5:14SEARyan DonatoUnassisted · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:29SEAJordan Eberle: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:37SEAJaden Schwartz: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:19MTLJonathan Drouin: Interference2 min
- P2 13:42MTLJeff Petry: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:28MTLSami Niku: Holding2 min
- P3 17:10MTLCedric Paquette: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Dvorak – Caufield4:21
xG 0.34–0.04 (89%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Gallagher – Suzuki10:11
xG 0.40–0.22 (64%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Perreault – Toffoli – Caufield4:48
xG 0.11–0.03 (79%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Armia – Paquette – Lehkonen7:46
xG 0.19–0.30 (39%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Chiarot12:55
xG 0.62–0.37 (62%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Niku2:40
xG 0.02–0.02 (61%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kulak – Niku9:08
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestMcCann – Donato – Tanev3:24
xG 0.34–0.15 (69%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- McCann – Appleton – Tanev5:20
xG 0.28–0.14 (67%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Eberle – Donskoi – Wennberg9:09
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Sheahan – Donato – Geekie4:09
xG 0.01–0.04 (15%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Oleksiak11:54
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 10–6goals 3–0
- Fleury – Dunn14:47
xG 0.30–0.36 (46%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Larsson – Lauzon14:02
xG 0.52–0.61 (46%)attempts 11–11goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).