Wed, Oct 27, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Dallas Stars 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 15 | 07 | 18 | 11 | 321 |
| DAL | 115 | 17 | 012 | 00 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:20DALLuke GlendeningAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Joel Kiviranta · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 3:47VGKShea TheodoreUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 6:56DALAlexander RadulovAssists: Jani Hakanpää, Jamie Benn · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 18:58VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Shea Theodore, Chandler Stephenson · Slap, 0.10 xG2–2
- OT 1:59VGKEvgenii DadonovGWGAssists: Nicolas Roy · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
Penalties (2)
- P1 19:11VGKWilliam Carrier: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:31DALBlake Comeau: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- Dadonov – Marchessault – Stephenson3:32
xG 0.05–0.19 (21%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault9:47
xG 0.18–0.33 (35%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Stephenson – Krebs2:28
xG 0.01–0.21 (3%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Carrier – Krebs5:12
xG 0.00–0.23 (1%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Coghlan4:00
xG 0.29–0.06 (83%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Theodore5:31
xG 0.11–0.30 (27%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- McNabb – Coghlan8:54
xG 0.20–0.50 (29%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:38
xG 0.84–0.16 (84%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Comeau – Faksa – Raffl10:29
xG 0.65–0.25 (72%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Radulov – Benn – Gurianov9:34
xG 0.60–0.20 (75%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Seguin – Glendening – Kiviranta9:40
xG 0.53–0.16 (76%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Klingberg17:47
xG 1.64–0.38 (81%)attempts 27–16goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen15:27
xG 0.66–0.19 (78%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Sekera – Hakanpää14:51
xG 0.74–0.33 (69%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).