Wed, Oct 27, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 312 | 06 | 216 | 534 |
| EDM | 213 | 112 | 012 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:22PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Travis Konecny, Sean Couturier · Wrap-around, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 10:05PHINate ThompsonAssists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–0
- P1 10:40EDMTyson BarrieAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–1
- P1 19:42EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P1 19:59PHICam AtkinsonAssists: Travis Sanheim, Carter Hart · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 0:54EDMZach HymanAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 4:18PHICam AtkinsonGWGAssists: Derick Brassard, Justin Braun · Slap, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 19:01PHISean CouturierENAssists: Justin Braun, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.67 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:01PHIRasmus Ristolainen: High sticking2 min
- P1 2:56EDMZach Hyman: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:51PHICam Atkinson: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:40PHIZack MacEwen: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:19EDMSlater Koekkoek: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:48PHITravis Konecny: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Laughton – Lindblom8:14
xG 0.72–0.13 (84%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Thompson – Aube-Kubel – MacEwen6:34
xG 0.49–0.32 (60%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny10:23
xG 0.47–0.39 (54%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Brassard – Atkinson – Farabee9:01
xG 0.50–0.50 (50%)attempts 6–8goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Provorov15:05
xG 0.66–0.53 (55%)attempts 9–16goals 2–0
- Yandle – Seeler9:29
xG 0.59–0.51 (54%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – Sanheim13:30
xG 0.98–0.91 (52%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – McDavid – Puljujarvi11:49
xG 0.81–0.68 (54%)attempts 19–9goals 1–1
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto12:50
xG 0.54–0.52 (51%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Kassian – Foegele – Ryan8:59
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 9–6goals 0–2
- Turris – Shore – Perlini2:50
xG 0.00–0.45 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bouchard18:55
xG 1.55–0.84 (65%)attempts 32–12goals 1–2
- Keith – Ceci14:31
xG 0.26–0.64 (29%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Barrie – Koekkoek10:21
xG 0.45–1.10 (29%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).