Thu, Oct 28, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Colorado Avalanche 4, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 114 | 216 | 112 | 442 |
| STL | 15 | 07 | 26 | 318 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:21STLColton ParaykoAssists: Marco Scandella, Vladimir Tarasenko · Slap, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 18:12COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Ryan Murray, Tyson Jost · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 11:33COLJ.T. CompherPPAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 14:40COLNazem KadriAssists: Logan O'Connor, Ryan Murray · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 4:13STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jordan Kyrou, James Neal · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 4:51COLCale MakarGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 16:01STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Robert Thomas, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:47COLNazem Kadri: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:47STLJustin Faulk: Instigator2 min
- P1 0:47STLJustin Faulk: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:47STLJustin Faulk: Misconduct10 min
- P1 6:12STLKlim Kostin: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:20STLTorey Krug: Holding2 min
- P1 14:31COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:41STLMarco Scandella: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:27STLJustin Faulk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 19:30COLJ.T. Compher: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:30STLIvan Barbashev: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:30STLJordan Binnington: Misconduct10 min
- P2 19:30COLNazem Kadri: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Ranta – O'Connor4:55
xG 0.31–0.02 (93%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Compher – Jost – Kaut3:55
xG 0.05–0.06 (43%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Burakovsky – MacKinnon11:56
xG 0.17–0.23 (43%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Murray2:02
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Johnson – Johnson8:33
xG 0.26–0.16 (63%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Makar – Byram12:20
xG 0.30–0.23 (57%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Joshua – Neighbours2:36
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bozak – Buchnevich – Kyrou2:43
xG 0.10–0.05 (65%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Perron – Bozak – Buchnevich4:08
xG 0.09–0.09 (49%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Perron – Schenn – Kostin3:35
xG 0.07–0.11 (38%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug7:38
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Scandella – Faulk2:26
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Parayko – Walman2:28
xG 0.06–0.02 (73%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).