Thu, Oct 28, 2021·Honda Center, Anaheim
Buffalo Sabres 4, Anaheim Ducks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 112 | 214 | 01 | 12 | 429 |
| ANA | 017 | 210 | 110 | 00 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:03BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Kyle Okposo, Mark Pysyk · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 4:24BUFRasmus AsplundPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Victor Olofsson · Slap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 6:01BUFArttu RuotsalainenAssists: Anders Bjork, Vinnie Hinostroza · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–0
- P2 7:46ANATroy TerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 16:31ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Isac Lundeström · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 5:59ANASimon BenoitAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk · Snap, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 4:16BUFRasmus AsplundGWGAssists: Victor Olofsson, Rasmus Dahlin · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 3:30ANANicolas Deslauriers: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:06ANAJosh Manson: Interference2 min
- P2 6:18BUFRasmus Asplund: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundeström won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Girgensons – Caggiula14:30
xG 0.55–0.30 (65%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Skinner – Hinostroza – Cozens8:32
xG 0.67–0.86 (44%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Hayden – Bjork – Ruotsalainen11:08
xG 0.23–0.61 (28%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Olofsson – Asplund – Thompson14:23
xG 0.29–0.71 (29%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Miller – Bryson18:42
xG 0.63–0.68 (48%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Pysyk – Hagg17:36
xG 0.92–1.21 (43%)attempts 16–21goals 1–0
- Butcher – Dahlin18:05
xG 0.47–0.81 (36%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestDeslauriers – Comtois – Groulx7:23
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Milano – Zegras2:35
xG 0.08–0.03 (72%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Henrique – Terry6:57
xG 0.30–0.27 (53%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Steel – Lundeström6:33
xG 0.01–0.04 (26%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Manson19:38
xG 1.32–0.52 (72%)attempts 25–15goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Drysdale19:26
xG 0.93–0.79 (54%)attempts 17–13goals 0–2
- Shattenkirk – Benoit12:52
xG 0.60–0.65 (48%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).