Thu, Oct 28, 2021·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Minnesota Wild 1, Seattle Kraken 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 110 | 05 | 016 | 131 |
| SEA | 113 | 117 | 28 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:27MINRyan HartmanAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Marcus Foligno · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 13:23SEAHaydn FleuryAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Joonas Donskoi · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 7:33SEAHaydn FleuryGWGAssists: Ryan Donato · Wrap-around, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 19:00SEABrandon TanevENAssists: Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.72 xG1–3
- P3 19:52SEAMark GiordanoENAssists: Riley Sheahan · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:42SEANathan Bastian: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 19:54MINMarcus Foligno: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 17:00MINConnor Dewar: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:46MINJon Lizotte: Boarding2 min
- P3 10:01SEAHaydn Fleury: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Kaprizov – Sturm3:59
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Fiala – Kaprizov2:13
xG 0.16–0.11 (60%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Hartman – Fiala – Duhaime2:02
xG 0.04–0.03 (57%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek3:40
xG 0.01–0.05 (12%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Spurgeon – Benn10:55
xG 0.55–0.50 (52%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Merrill2:52
xG 0.07–0.23 (24%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba17:16
xG 0.33–0.61 (35%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Donskoi – Wennberg10:08
xG 0.59–0.10 (85%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Eberle – McCann – Geekie7:07
xG 0.38–0.10 (80%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Donato – Bastian5:42
xG 0.35–0.17 (67%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Schwartz – Gourde2:03
xG 0.06–0.15 (30%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Dunn9:35
xG 0.68–0.01 (98%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Fleury10:58
xG 0.80–0.33 (71%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Larsson – Lauzon15:17
xG 0.47–0.35 (57%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).