Fri, Oct 29, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Florida Panthers 3, Detroit Red Wings 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 210 | 014 | 07 | 12 | 333 |
| DET | 011 | 17 | 111 | 01 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:43FLAEetu LuostarinenAssists: Markus Nutivaara, Brandon Montour · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 18:49FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Anthony Duclair · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 2:15DETSam GagnerAssists: Troy Stecher, Mitchell Stephens · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 17:19DETPius SuterAssists: Moritz Seider, Robby Fabbri · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 3:29FLAAleksander BarkovGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar · Backhand, 0.23 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:44FLABrandon Montour: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:12FLARadko Gudas: Holding2 min
- P2 16:23DETMitchell Stephens: Holding2 min
- P2 19:55DETMoritz Seider: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:28FLAOwen Tippett: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:00FLASam Bennett: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:33DETFilip Hronek: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Marchment – Luostarinen9:04
xG 0.85–0.14 (86%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Thornton – Hornqvist – Vatrano4:15
xG 0.03–0.07 (28%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Bennett – Tippett8:35
xG 0.16–0.62 (21%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Duclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov10:44
xG 0.21–1.25 (15%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Forsling6:03
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–0goals 0–0
- Montour – Nutivaara3:27
xG 0.23–0.07 (77%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Gudas – Forsling8:02
xG 0.61–0.47 (57%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond11:49
xG 1.43–0.82 (64%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Rasmussen – Zadina5:25
xG 0.35–0.09 (79%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Gagner – Rowney – Stephens7:05
xG 0.28–0.07 (81%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Erne – Fabbri – Suter5:13
xG 0.24–0.18 (58%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Hronek13:08
xG 1.83–0.89 (67%)attempts 22–13goals 0–1
- DeKeyser – Seider11:17
xG 0.39–0.15 (72%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Leddy – Seider4:33
xG 0.33–0.18 (65%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).