Fri, Oct 29, 2021·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Carolina Hurricanes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 210 | 012 | 14 | 326 |
| CAR | 418 | 210 | 07 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:12CHIBrandon HagelAssists: Jonathan Toews, Erik Gustafsson · Snap, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 7:10CARTony DeAngeloAssists: Vincent Trocheck · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 10:21CHIAdam GaudettePPAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Erik Gustafsson · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–1
- P1 13:09CARJordan StaalAssists: Ethan Bear, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P1 13:26CARDerek StepanAssists: Jesper Fast · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
- P1 18:40CARJesperi KotkaniemiGWGAssists: Sebastian Aho, Ian Cole · Snap, 0.17 xG2–4
- P2 3:43CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–5
- P2 6:16CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–6
- P3 8:08CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Seth Jones, Dominik Kubalik · Snap, 0.13 xG3–6
Penalties (15)
- P1 8:55CARBrady Skjei: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:58CHIRyan Carpenter: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:33CARAndrei Svechnikov: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:32CHIIsaak Phillips: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:47CARVincent Trocheck: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:29CARMartin Necas: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:49CHIAdam Gaudette: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:03CAREthan Bear: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:55CHIReese Johnson: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:55CARTony DeAngelo: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 7:25CHIConnor Murphy: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:25CARAndrei Svechnikov: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:25CARAndrei Svechnikov: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:35CARBrady Skjei: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:21CARSteven Lorentz: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Carpenter – Hagel4:45
xG 0.40–0.07 (86%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- DeBrincat – Kurashev – Hardman7:00
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Johnson – Kubalik – Dach4:19
xG 0.02–0.10 (14%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Gaudette – Entwistle – Johnson4:19
xG 0.18–0.35 (34%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Phillips3:11
xG 0.38–0.33 (54%)attempts 6–3goals 1–1
- de Haan – Jones9:10
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Gustafsson – Jones3:53
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Martinook – Lorentz8:20
xG 0.44–0.08 (85%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Necas – Svechnikov7:49
xG 0.48–0.29 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Staal – Niederreiter – Fast7:52
xG 0.08–0.21 (28%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Kotkaniemi8:20
xG 0.17–0.38 (30%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Bear11:36
xG 0.65–0.13 (83%)attempts 17–6goals 2–0
- Cole – DeAngelo7:28
xG 0.54–0.51 (52%)attempts 7–10goals 2–0
- Skjei – Pesce14:36
xG 0.29–0.72 (29%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).