Fri, Oct 29, 2021·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Anaheim Ducks 4, Vegas Golden Knights 5 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 08 | 112 | 314 | 04 | 1 | 438 |
| VGK | 121 | 112 | 26 | 03 | 2 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:30VGKReilly SmithAssists: William Karlsson, Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P2 3:52VGKNicolas HagueAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Alex Pietrangelo · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 15:49ANATrevor ZegrasAssists: Sonny Milano, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 2:45VGKChandler StephensonAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Nicolas Hague · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 5:56VGKWilliam CarrierAssists: Chandler Stephenson · Snap, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 11:18ANATroy TerryAssists: Bo Groulx, Ryan Getzlaf · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 15:44ANAIsac LundeströmAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Jakob Silfverberg · Backhand, 0.31 xG3–4
- P3 16:29ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Trevor Zegras · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. ANA Trevor Zegras scored
- 2. VGK Chandler Stephenson stopped
- 3. ANA Maxime Comtois stopped
- 4. VGK Jonathan Marchessault stopped
- 5. ANA Kevin Shattenkirk stopped
- 6. VGK Nicolas Roy scored
- 7. ANA Troy Terry stopped
- 8. VGK Evgenii Dadonov scored
Penalties (5)
- P2 7:33VGKNicolas Hague: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:53VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:53ANAJosh Manson: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:27VGKReilly Smith: Holding2 min
- P3 6:14VGKShea Theodore: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundeström won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Milano – Zegras7:40
xG 0.83–0.28 (75%)attempts 14–4goals 1–1
- Silfverberg – Lundeström – Groulx4:11
xG 0.41–0.07 (85%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Deslauriers – Terry8:04
xG 0.46–0.19 (71%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Terry – Groulx2:30
xG 0.17–0.16 (51%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Drysdale15:46
xG 1.19–0.39 (75%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Lindholm2:44
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Fowler4:16
xG 0.22–0.15 (60%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Kolesar – Roy10:21
xG 0.73–0.21 (77%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Howden – Leschyshyn – Rondbjerg7:22
xG 0.39–0.18 (68%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Carrier – Krebs9:37
xG 0.38–0.22 (64%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:32
xG 0.97–1.19 (45%)attempts 17–16goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Theodore17:52
xG 1.28–0.68 (65%)attempts 20–14goals 1–1
- Pietrangelo – Hague15:23
xG 0.91–0.99 (48%)attempts 22–18goals 2–1
- McNabb – Coghlan12:18
xG 0.81–0.91 (47%)attempts 15–16goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).