Sat, Oct 30, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
New York Islanders 2, Nashville Predators 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 111 | 115 | 09 | 01 | 0 | 236 |
| NSH | 011 | 15 | 14 | 03 | 2 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:46NYIAnthony BeauvillierPPAssists: Josh Bailey, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 6:54NSHTanner JeannotAssists: Dante Fabbro, Colton Sissons · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 12:04NYIOliver WahlstromPPAssists: Brock Nelson, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 11:48NSHTanner JeannotAssists: Matt Benning, Colton Sissons · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NSH Matt Duchene stopped
- 2. NYI Oliver Wahlstrom stopped
- 3. NSH Filip Forsberg scored
- 4. NYI Anthony Beauvillier stopped
- 5. NSH Roman Josi scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:50NYIZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:10NYICasey Cizikas: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:10NSHMatt Benning: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:24NSHRyan Johansen: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 18:02NSHYakov Trenin: Interference2 min
- P1 19:52NYINoah Dobson: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 10:13NSHMikael Granlund: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:31NYIKyle Palmieri: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:00NYIZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:30NSHAlexandre Carrier: Cross checking2 min
- OT 5:00NSHFilip Forsberg: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Nelson – Beauvillier10:05
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:30
xG 0.22–0.15 (60%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Parise – Pageau – Wahlstrom6:44
xG 0.13–0.16 (45%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Bailey – Lee – Barzal8:17
xG 0.23–0.39 (37%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Pelech11:33
xG 0.45–0.19 (71%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Greene – Dobson8:23
xG 0.22–0.18 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Chara – Pulock12:31
xG 0.26–0.56 (32%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Granlund – Forsberg11:33
xG 0.54–0.21 (72%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot9:02
xG 0.29–0.08 (78%)attempts 7–2goals 2–0
- Cousins – Novak – Tomasino6:28
xG 0.10–0.16 (38%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Johansen – Kunin – Tolvanen6:59
xG 0.15–0.31 (33%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Carrier14:30
xG 0.32–0.20 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Benning7:33
xG 0.20–0.14 (58%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro14:26
xG 0.35–0.74 (32%)attempts 8–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).