Sat, Oct 30, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
Minnesota Wild 1, Colorado Avalanche 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 08 | 115 | 07 | 130 |
| COL | 115 | 18 | 28 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:03COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 16:54MINRyan HartmanPPAssists: Marcus Foligno, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 17:34COLErik JohnsonGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 2:54COLNazem KadriPPAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, J.T. Compher · Slap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 17:48COLGabriel LandeskogENAssists: J.T. Compher, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.61 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:09MINDmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min
- P2 14:16COLGabriel Landeskog: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:31COLBowen Byram: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:24MINBrandon Duhaime: Cross checking5 min · PPG
- P3 2:24MINBrandon Duhaime: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 2:24MINBrandon Duhaime: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:24COLNathan MacKinnon: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:16MINRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHartman – Gaudreau – Fiala11:02
xG 0.51–0.21 (70%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Duhaime – Sturm6:49
xG 0.24–0.29 (44%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov10:48
xG 0.09–0.20 (32%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Rau – Dewar – Beckman6:14
xG 0.20–0.51 (28%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Addison11:04
xG 0.78–0.29 (73%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Merrill2:39
xG 0.06–0.11 (37%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Kulikov13:13
xG 0.32–0.66 (33%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – Burakovsky – MacKinnon10:32
xG 0.58–0.29 (67%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Kadri – Ranta – O'Connor8:22
xG 0.46–0.22 (67%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Compher – Jost – Kaut5:55
xG 0.13–0.06 (68%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Compher – MacKinnon3:13
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMakar – Byram15:59
xG 0.52–0.29 (65%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Johnson – Girard8:21
xG 0.31–0.09 (78%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Murray7:59
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).