Sat, Oct 30, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Philadelphia Flyers 0, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 04 | 05 | 011 | 020 |
| CGY | 08 | 116 | 312 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:07CGYSean MonahanPPGWGAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Elias Lindholm · Tip-in, 0.21 xG0–1
- P3 8:30CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 16:11CGYMikael BacklundENAssists: Tyler Pitlick, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.74 xG0–3
- P3 18:01CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Chris Tanev, Oliver Kylington · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:34PHIJustin Braun: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:54CGYBrett Ritchie: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 4:19PHITravis Sanheim: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:54PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:44CGYNikita Zadorov: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:16PHIClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:56PHIZack MacEwen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:40PHIJustin Braun: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:40CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:40CGYElias Lindholm: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny9:29
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Lindblom6:26
xG 0.02–0.02 (46%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Thompson – Brown – MacEwen9:27
xG 0.15–0.37 (29%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Brassard – Atkinson – Farabee9:14
xG 0.11–0.85 (12%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Provorov3:00
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Braun – Sanheim3:19
xG 0.00–0.19 (2%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim11:26
xG 0.46–0.66 (41%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk13:47
xG 0.83–0.12 (87%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Ritchie – Mangiapane – Dube7:44
xG 0.64–0.13 (83%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Lewis – Lucic – Monahan8:15
xG 0.57–0.26 (69%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Backlund – Pitlick – Coleman10:46
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Kylington16:22
xG 1.41–0.21 (87%)attempts 21–6goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Andersson13:21
xG 0.52–0.25 (68%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Zadorov13:26
xG 0.31–0.29 (52%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).