Sat, Oct 30, 2021·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Winnipeg Jets 1, San Jose Sharks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 013 | 07 | 115 | 00 | 135 |
| SJS | 014 | 113 | 06 | 13 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:54SJSTomas HertlAssists: Timo Meier, Alexander Barabanov · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P3 16:48WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–1
- OT 1:07SJSTimo MeierPPGWGAssists: Kevin Labanc, Brent Burns · Slap, 0.15 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:35WPGPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:43SJSSanteri Hatakka: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:43WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:43WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: High sticking2 min
- OT 0:30WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Bonino
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestEhlers – Connor – Dubois7:43
xG 0.60–0.11 (85%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Stastny – Ehlers – Connor2:07
xG 0.32–0.09 (79%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Lowry – Vesalainen5:37
xG 0.30–0.09 (76%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Lowry – Harkins – Svechnikov2:10
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Beaulieu2:29
xG 0.86–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pionk18:29
xG 0.78–0.79 (50%)attempts 29–19goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Stanley7:44
xG 0.09–0.12 (41%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Labanc – Weatherby – Leonard9:11
xG 0.24–0.21 (53%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Hertl – Meier – Barabanov16:22
xG 0.95–1.00 (49%)attempts 15–24goals 1–0
- Merkley – Pederson – Gadjovich7:53
xG 0.37–0.46 (44%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Bonino – Balcers – Eklund12:57
xG 0.40–0.56 (41%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMeloche – Hatakka13:29
xG 0.47–0.31 (60%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
- Megna – Merkley11:10
xG 0.40–0.56 (42%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Burns – Ferraro24:24
xG 0.90–1.45 (38%)attempts 27–31goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).