Sun, Oct 31, 2021·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Buffalo Sabres 2, Los Angeles Kings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 07 | 29 | 08 | 224 |
| LAK | 07 | 114 | 213 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:07BUFRasmus AsplundSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 7:39BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Jacob Bryson · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 8:39LAKCarl GrundstromAssists: Anze Kopitar, Tobias Bjornfot · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 4:50LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Kale Clague, Adrian Kempe · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 13:41LAKAlex IafalloGWGAssists: Tobias Bjornfot, Adrian Kempe · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:52BUFVinnie Hinostroza: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:30BUFZemgus Girgensons: Interference2 min
- P2 9:19BUFRobert Hagg: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:38LAKBrendan Lemieux: Holding2 min
- P2 16:03LAKBrendan Lemieux: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:03BUFDylan Cozens: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:14LAKRasmus Kupari: Holding2 min
- P3 4:44BUFColin Miller: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:27BUFBrett Murray: Interference2 min
- P3 17:23BUFColin Miller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Skinner – Girgensons9:52
xG 0.73–0.22 (77%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Asplund – Thompson9:42
xG 0.44–0.22 (67%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Hinostroza – Bjork – Ruotsalainen3:21
xG 0.31–0.39 (44%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Bjork – Cozens3:30
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Bryson11:59
xG 1.06–0.49 (68%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Pysyk – Hagg12:49
xG 0.10–0.41 (19%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
- Butcher – Dahlin16:30
xG 0.49–0.84 (37%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Kaliyev8:15
xG 0.36–0.00 (99%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Grundstrom – Moore – Kupari9:24
xG 0.07–0.16 (30%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Lemieux – Andersson – Lizotte5:12
xG 0.17–0.28 (38%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Andersson5:01
xG 0.08–0.19 (30%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAnderson – Bjornfot17:07
xG 1.12–0.77 (59%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Edler – Clague11:44
xG 0.63–0.52 (55%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Maatta – Roy12:55
xG 0.10–0.43 (19%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).