Mon, Nov 1, 2021·United Center, Chicago
Ottawa Senators 1, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 013 | 06 | 111 | 130 |
| CHI | 18 | 115 | 38 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:10CHIBrandon HagelAssists: Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 2:09CHIPatrick KanePPGWGAssists: Ryan Carpenter, Jonathan Toews · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–2
- P3 0:27CHIBrandon HagelAssists: Jonathan Toews, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–3
- P3 1:22CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Dominik Kubalik · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–4
- P3 1:41OTTAlex FormentonAssists: Victor Mete, Tyler Ennis · Snap, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 7:17CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Dominik Kubalik · Snap, 0.17 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:25CHIIsaak Phillips: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:38OTTDrake Batherson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:48OTTArtem Zub: Interference2 min
- P2 15:52CHIKirby Dach: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:32CHIDylan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:10CHISeth Jones: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:24OTTConnor Brown: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Paul – Sanford2:00
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Ennis – Tierney – Formenton8:27
xG 0.45–0.19 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Shaw – Sanford – Gambrell6:06
xG 0.27–0.04 (87%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk12:13
xG 0.55–0.52 (52%)attempts 15–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zub18:41
xG 0.85–0.56 (60%)attempts 21–18goals 0–2
- Holden – Zaitsev12:38
xG 0.55–0.48 (53%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Brown – Mete12:41
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Kane – Hagel2:16
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Toews – Carpenter – Hagel7:28
xG 0.16–0.02 (89%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- DeBrincat – Kurashev – Hardman5:48
xG 0.26–0.22 (55%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Kane – Kubalik – Dach10:18
xG 0.41–0.45 (48%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Murphy – Gustafsson12:08
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Gustafsson – Phillips2:10
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Murphy – McCabe4:21
xG 0.05–0.05 (52%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).