Tue, Nov 2, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Ottawa Senators 4, Minnesota Wild 5 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 17 | 312 | 09 | 00 | 428 |
| MIN | 313 | 110 | 019 | 11 | 543 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:57MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 4:24MINCalen AddisonAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Jon Merrill · Deflected, 0.00 xG0–2
- P1 10:48OTTNick PaulAssists: Connor Brown, Alex Formenton · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 13:35MINNico SturmAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–3
- P2 2:12OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Josh Norris · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 3:23OTTJosh NorrisPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle · Snap, 0.16 xG3–3
- P2 7:48OTTChris TierneyAssists: Tyler Ennis, Michael Del Zotto · Deflected, 0.17 xG4–3
- P2 10:10MINMarcus FolignoPPAssists: Mathew Dumba, Jonas Brodin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–4
- OT 2:02MINKirill KaprizovGWGAssists: Kevin Fiala · Snap, 0.10 xG4–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:17MINBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:17OTTAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:57OTTZachary Sanford: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:45OTTArtem Zub: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:12MINAdam Beckman: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P2 5:36MINConnor Dewar: Interference2 min
- P2 8:36OTTNick Paul: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:47MINAdam Beckman: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:48OTTBrady Tkachuk: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:17MINKevin Fiala: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Paul
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Ennis – Tierney – Stützle2:48
xG 0.01–0.05 (20%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
- Brown – Paul – Formenton4:50
xG 0.16–0.46 (25%)attempts 2–4goals 1–1
- Watson – Shaw – Sanford7:11
xG 0.06–0.38 (14%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Ennis – Tierney – Formenton2:31
xG 0.00–0.41 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zub19:43
xG 0.95–0.72 (57%)attempts 14–21goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Zaitsev12:34
xG 0.51–0.79 (39%)attempts 11–17goals 3–2
- Brown – Mete10:08
xG 0.01–1.87 (1%)attempts 1–21goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHartman – Gaudreau – Kaprizov11:48
xG 1.14–0.14 (89%)attempts 22–4goals 1–1
- Foligno – Fiala – Eriksson Ek11:40
xG 1.27–0.64 (67%)attempts 20–10goals 1–1
- Bjugstad – Duhaime – Sturm6:52
xG 0.06–0.21 (22%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Rau – Dewar – Beckman5:57
xG 0.08–0.24 (26%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Kulikov12:43
xG 1.68–0.30 (85%)attempts 21–7goals 2–0
- Merrill – Addison13:45
xG 0.87–0.51 (63%)attempts 19–9goals 1–1
- Brodin – Dumba18:12
xG 0.92–0.69 (57%)attempts 22–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).