Tue, Nov 2, 2021·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Dallas Stars 3, Winnipeg Jets 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 18 | 08 | 210 | 01 | 1 | 327 |
| WPG | 17 | 217 | 07 | 04 | 2 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:29WPGPaul StastnyAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Nikolaj Ehlers · Deflected, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 16:16DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 0:32WPGJosh MorrisseyPPAssists: Nate Schmidt, Blake Wheeler · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 7:23WPGPierre-Luc DuboisPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–3
- P3 9:37DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Alexander Radulov, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–3
- P3 13:16DALTyler SeguinAssists: John Klingberg, Tanner Kero · Deflected, 0.09 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. DAL Jason Robertson stopped
- 2. WPG Kyle Connor scored
- 3. DAL Joe Pavelski scored
- 4. WPG Pierre-Luc Dubois stopped
- 5. DAL Alexander Radulov stopped
- 6. WPG Mark Scheifele scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:34DALJason Robertson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:44DALRadek Faksa: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:27DALEsa Lindell: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:43WPGNeal Pionk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:33WPGPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:16DALJason Robertson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson13:32
xG 0.94–0.26 (78%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Benn – Seguin2:07
xG 0.26–0.03 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Glendening – Kero – Kiviranta2:19
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin11:00
xG 0.41–0.47 (47%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Klingberg17:35
xG 1.14–0.70 (62%)attempts 19–14goals 1–1
- Heiskanen – Harley6:03
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen13:27
xG 0.48–0.37 (57%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Copp – Ehlers11:35
xG 0.80–0.20 (80%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Lowry – Scheifele11:34
xG 0.45–0.34 (57%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Connor – Svechnikov – Dubois14:13
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Toninato – Ehlers – Harkins2:40
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Morrissey14:45
xG 0.52–0.18 (75%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Stanley10:02
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Beaulieu4:15
xG 0.14–0.31 (31%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).