Tue, Nov 2, 2021·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Buffalo Sabres 3, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 17 | 110 | 111 | 328 |
| SJS | 29 | 110 | 28 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:25SJSJonathan DahlenAssists: William Eklund, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–1
- P1 8:48BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Robert Hagg · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 12:49SJSRyan MerkleyAssists: Alexander Barabanov, Tomas Hertl · Snap, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 6:13SJSTomas HertlAssists: Rudolfs Balcers · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 13:33BUFDrake CaggiulaAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Dylan Cozens · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 6:02SJSMario FerraroGWGAssists: Nick Merkley, Jasper Weatherby · Slap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 11:46SJSTomas HertlAssists: Rudolfs Balcers, Mario Ferraro · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–5
- P3 18:13BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Tage Thompson, Rasmus Asplund · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:00SJSJasper Weatherby: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:36BUFDylan Cozens: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:00SJSBrent Burns: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 10:15SJSJasper Weatherby: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:15BUFVinnie Hinostroza: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Asplund – Thompson14:32
xG 0.52–0.31 (63%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Hinostroza – Caggiula – Cozens10:53
xG 0.17–0.16 (51%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Hayden – Bjork – Ruotsalainen7:27
xG 0.20–0.40 (34%)attempts 5–10goals 0–2
- Okposo – Eakin – Girgensons11:01
xG 0.14–0.45 (23%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestButcher – Dahlin19:27
xG 0.72–0.32 (70%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Miller – Bryson13:41
xG 0.21–0.61 (26%)attempts 10–12goals 1–2
- Pysyk – Hagg14:35
xG 0.15–0.62 (20%)attempts 9–14goals 0–2
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Dahlen – Eklund11:36
xG 0.49–0.09 (84%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Hertl – Balcers – Barabanov12:48
xG 0.55–0.33 (63%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Merkley – Weatherby – Leonard8:49
xG 0.37–0.34 (52%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Cogliano – Bonino – Pederson11:50
xG 0.12–0.30 (28%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Burns – Ferraro19:17
xG 0.65–0.61 (52%)attempts 16–16goals 2–2
- Meloche – Hatakka7:02
xG 0.05–0.03 (63%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Megna – Merkley11:55
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).