Wed, Nov 3, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Colorado Avalanche 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 010 | 113 | 313 | 11 | 537 |
| COL | 012 | 214 | 26 | 00 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:32COLLogan O'ConnorAssists: Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 12:24COLBowen ByramAssists: Nazem Kadri, Gabriel Landeskog · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 16:55CBJJake BeanAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Andrew Peeke · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 1:13CBJCole SillingerAssists: Jakub Voracek, Patrik Laine · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 4:26CBJCole SillingerAssists: Gabriel Carlsson, Patrik Laine · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 8:56CBJBoone JennerAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–2
- P3 16:34COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Bowen Byram, Nazem Kadri · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 19:08COLBowen ByramAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.03 xG4–4
- OT 1:12CBJJake BeanGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek, Cole Sillinger · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 0:42CBJPatrik Laine: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:23CBJZach Werenski: Interference2 min
- P2 13:30CBJGavin Bayreuther: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Jenner – Bjorkstrand10:24
xG 0.81–0.24 (77%)attempts 20–5goals 2–0
- Nyquist – Bjorkstrand – Sillinger4:57
xG 0.36–0.08 (81%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Kuraly – Texier – Robinson6:25
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Voracek – Laine – Sillinger6:26
xG 0.25–0.23 (53%)attempts 6–6goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Bean20:06
xG 0.79–0.28 (74%)attempts 26–13goals 0–1
- Gavrikov – Bayreuther15:04
xG 0.80–0.37 (68%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Bean – Bayreuther2:22
xG 0.06–0.07 (45%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Ranta – O'Connor4:37
xG 0.23–0.02 (93%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Compher – MacKinnon11:36
xG 0.31–0.14 (70%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Helm – Jost – Kaut3:04
xG 0.01–0.02 (30%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – O'Connor2:05
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Johnson7:54
xG 0.56–0.31 (64%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Murray – Girard2:56
xG 0.05–0.02 (75%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Murray2:28
xG 0.02–0.01 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).