Wed, Nov 3, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Nashville Predators 2, Edmonton Oilers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 18 | 09 | 116 | 233 |
| EDM | 110 | 19 | 311 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:43EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 6:54NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Luke Kunin, Roman Josi · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 1:27EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 3:41EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Snap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 4:59EDMDevin ShoreAssists: Warren Foegele · Slap, 0.16 xG1–4
- P3 15:59NSHRyan JohansenPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 16:50EDMJesse PuljujarviENAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.77 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:45NSHMikael Granlund: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:59EDMDarnell Nurse: Holding2 min
- P2 8:05EDMDevin Shore: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:53NSHColton Sissons: Interference2 min
- P3 12:42EDMWarren Foegele: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 14:29EDMDerek Ryan: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Grimaldi – Tolvanen8:34
xG 0.98–0.24 (81%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot10:59
xG 0.85–0.68 (56%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Cousins – Novak – Tomasino8:35
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Duchene – Granlund – Kunin11:41
xG 0.52–0.46 (53%)attempts 10–7goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro14:49
xG 1.25–0.49 (72%)attempts 15–12goals 1–2
- Ekholm – Carrier16:04
xG 0.60–0.72 (45%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Benning – Harpur11:49
xG 0.42–0.57 (43%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Yamamoto6:06
xG 0.27–0.06 (83%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Kassian – Shore – Foegele5:59
xG 0.26–0.09 (74%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Hyman – McDavid – Puljujarvi4:23
xG 0.21–0.06 (76%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Turris – Shore – Perlini3:30
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Russell – Barrie11:13
xG 0.27–0.45 (37%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Keith – Ceci14:19
xG 0.85–1.04 (45%)attempts 15–19goals 1–1
- Nurse – Bouchard17:20
xG 0.61–0.85 (42%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).