Thu, Nov 4, 2021·TD Garden, Boston
Detroit Red Wings 1, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 03 | 06 | 16 | 115 |
| BOS | 111 | 215 | 211 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:03BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 10:52BOSPatrice BergeronPPGWGAssists: Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 18:45BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy · Snap, 0.14 xG0–3
- P3 7:46DETLucas RaymondPPAssists: Filip Hronek, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 8:10BOSMike ReillySHAssists: Curtis Lazar, Tomas Nosek · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–4
- P3 15:52BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, Mike Reilly · Snap, 0.06 xG1–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:55BOSErik Haula: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:58DETVladislav Namestnikov: Playing without a helmet2 min · PPG
- P1 16:14DETNick Leddy: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:39DETTyler Bertuzzi: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:48DETMoritz Seider: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 0:24BOSConnor Clifton: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:08BOSDavid Pastrnak: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:59BOSPatrice Bergeron: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:34DETJoseph Veleno: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:14BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:14DETFilip Hronek: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Rasmussen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Namestnikov – Erne – Rasmussen8:10
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Gagner – Rowney – Stephens7:43
xG 0.14–0.31 (32%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Fabbri – Raymond10:05
xG 0.23–0.62 (27%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Suter – Veleno – Zadina11:05
xG 0.10–0.59 (15%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Stecher9:48
xG 0.47–0.32 (59%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Leddy – Hronek12:20
xG 0.26–0.51 (34%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Seider16:47
xG 0.22–0.58 (28%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestNosek – Frederic – Kuhlman9:30
xG 0.50–0.12 (80%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak9:44
xG 0.45–0.12 (78%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Smith – Coyle – Hall6:33
xG 0.35–0.12 (74%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Haula – Lazar – DeBrusk11:16
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Clifton11:11
xG 0.88–0.11 (89%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Reilly – Carlo4:15
xG 0.21–0.01 (94%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy3:07
xG 0.23–0.03 (89%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).