Thu, Nov 4, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Islanders 6, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 112 | 413 | 111 | 636 |
| MTL | 010 | 013 | 215 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:14NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Anthony Beauvillier · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 3:31NYIOliver WahlstromAssists: Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 12:25NYIBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Zdeno Chara · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–0
- P2 15:23NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Anthony Beauvillier · Backhand, 0.19 xG4–0
- P2 18:08NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Zach Parise, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–0
- P3 15:20MTLNick SuzukiSHAssists: David Savard · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–1
- P3 17:04MTLTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Christian Dvorak, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–2
- P3 19:41NYIBrock NelsonENAssists: Zach Parise, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.60 xG6–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:37NYINoah Dobson: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:35MTLChris Wideman: Interference2 min
- P3 4:52MTLDavid Savard: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:29MTLAlex Belzile: Holding2 min
- P3 15:42NYIScott Mayfield: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 16:16NYICal Clutterbuck: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParise – Pageau – Wahlstrom9:12
xG 0.47–0.20 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Beauvillier10:18
xG 0.85–0.69 (55%)attempts 10–12goals 3–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:23
xG 0.14–0.26 (36%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Bailey – Lee – Barzal10:43
xG 0.65–0.85 (44%)attempts 7–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Pelech10:58
xG 0.74–0.04 (95%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Chara – Pulock12:58
xG 1.30–0.75 (63%)attempts 16–22goals 2–0
- Mayfield – Dobson2:45
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestBelzile – Brooks – Pezzetta7:41
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Armia – Lehkonen – Dvorak2:50
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Armia – Lehkonen – Evans7:39
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Gallagher – Suzuki10:32
xG 0.63–0.56 (53%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Chiarot16:28
xG 1.21–0.75 (62%)attempts 26–11goals 0–1
- Wideman – Romanov12:18
xG 0.47–0.63 (43%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Savard – Kulak15:42
xG 0.47–1.25 (27%)attempts 17–12goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).