Thu, Nov 4, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Vegas Golden Knights 5, Ottawa Senators 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 011 | 316 | 212 | 539 |
| OTT | 016 | 112 | 011 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:31VGKWilliam CarrierAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 11:21VGKBrett HowdenGWGAssists: Shea Theodore, Jonas Rondbjerg · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 12:25VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Nicolas Roy, Nicolas Hague · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 15:50OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Artem Zub, Drake Batherson · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 14:01VGKAlex PietrangeloAssists: Reilly Smith, Nicolas Roy · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–1
- P3 17:10VGKJonathan MarchessaultENAssists: Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.70 xG5–1
Penalties (2)
- P1 4:05VGKJonathan Marchessault: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:07OTTBrady Tkachuk: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gambrell won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Marchessault – Roy12:49
xG 0.99–0.49 (67%)attempts 24–12goals 2–0
- Dadonov – Stephenson – Carrier9:34
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Janmark – Amadio – Kolesar8:07
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Howden – Leschyshyn – Rondbjerg10:29
xG 0.26–0.39 (40%)attempts 4–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hague14:42
xG 1.17–0.54 (68%)attempts 23–12goals 2–1
- McNabb – Coghlan13:25
xG 0.36–0.46 (44%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
- Martinez – Theodore19:56
xG 0.90–1.07 (46%)attempts 25–23goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk11:16
xG 0.43–0.41 (51%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Brown – Paul – Formenton8:25
xG 0.46–0.57 (45%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Watson – Sanford – Gambrell7:01
xG 0.30–0.46 (40%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Ennis – Tierney – Stützle4:40
xG 0.04–0.27 (14%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zub22:11
xG 1.14–0.87 (57%)attempts 29–18goals 1–1
- Brown – Mete12:02
xG 0.41–0.51 (45%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
- Holden – Del Zotto14:23
xG 0.38–0.63 (38%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).