Thu, Nov 4, 2021·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Washington Capitals 4, Florida Panthers 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 013 | 319 | 110 | 00 | 442 |
| FLA | 214 | 212 | 05 | 12 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:07FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Anthony Duclair, Carter Verhaeghe · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 11:04FLAAaron EkbladUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 0:43WSHDaniel SprongAssists: Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 7:16FLABrandon MontourAssists: Gustav Forsling, Mason Marchment · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 15:32FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–4
- P2 18:11WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P2 19:43WSHTom WilsonAssists: John Carlson, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 6:56WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Brett Leason · Snap, 0.15 xG4–4
- OT 1:55FLAEetu LuostarinenGWGAssists: Gustav Forsling, Sam Reinhart · Tip-in, 0.02 xG4–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:07WSHDaniel Sprong: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 13:57FLABrandon Montour: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:20FLAChase Priskie: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:10WSHNic Dowd: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:36WSHLars Eller: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Reinhart
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Mantha – Sprong4:46
xG 0.57–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway9:29
xG 0.58–0.15 (79%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson13:33
xG 0.63–0.50 (56%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Sheary – Leason – McMichael3:21
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen12:19
xG 0.47–0.17 (73%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Carlson – Fehérváry16:01
xG 1.22–0.97 (56%)attempts 17–19goals 1–2
- Schultz – Orlov3:55
xG 0.30–0.06 (84%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov11:28
xG 0.85–0.55 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Hornqvist – Vatrano – Luostarinen9:32
xG 0.19–0.13 (60%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Reinhart – Tippett7:51
xG 0.23–0.70 (25%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Marchment – Mamin – Lundell9:54
xG 0.08–0.78 (9%)attempts 7–13goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling2:30
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Connauton – Montour2:55
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Forsling – Priskie2:05
xG 0.22–0.35 (38%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).