Thu, Nov 4, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 017 | 110 | 19 | 02 | 238 |
| PIT | 18 | 116 | 010 | 12 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:16PITBrock McGinnAssists: Mike Matheson, Zachary Aston-Reese · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 7:37PHITravis KonecnyPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 11:46PITJake GuentzelAssists: Danton Heinen, John Marino · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 17:08PHIScott LaughtonAssists: James van Riemsdyk · Slap, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 1:54PITKris LetangGWGAssists: Jeff Carter · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:40PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: Interference2 min
- P2 3:41PHIClaude Giroux: Holding2 min
- P2 6:20PITDanton Heinen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:12PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:58PITBrock McGinn: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Blueger won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Laughton – Lindblom12:26
xG 0.44–0.28 (62%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny13:11
xG 0.70–0.71 (49%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Thompson – Aube-Kubel – MacEwen6:33
xG 0.15–0.53 (22%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Brassard – Atkinson – Farabee9:27
xG 0.17–0.84 (17%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Provorov2:25
xG 0.38–0.07 (85%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Braun – Provorov12:45
xG 0.88–0.87 (50%)attempts 22–12goals 0–1
- Braun – Sanheim2:36
xG 0.05–0.13 (26%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestZucker – Kapanen – Rodrigues12:23
xG 1.20–0.40 (75%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Blueger – McGinn – Aston-Reese13:02
xG 0.53–0.29 (64%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Carter – Guentzel – Heinen12:01
xG 0.94–0.88 (52%)attempts 18–18goals 1–0
- Boyle – Simon – O'Connor6:28
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarino – Joseph13:40
xG 0.77–0.35 (69%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Letang – Matheson18:54
xG 1.11–0.97 (53%)attempts 22–23goals 1–1
- Friedman – Riikola8:40
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).