Thu, Nov 4, 2021·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
St. Louis Blues 5, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 17 | 312 | 19 | 528 |
| SJS | 212 | 18 | 06 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:13SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Tomas Hertl, Alexander Barabanov · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 10:00STLBrandon SaadSHAssists: Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 17:16SJSLogan CoutureSHAssists: Rudolfs Balcers · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 4:20STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Klim Kostin · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 4:49SJSNick MerkleyAssists: Mario Ferraro, Brent Burns · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–3
- P2 8:09STLBrandon SaadAssists: Robert Thomas, David Perron · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- P2 11:42STLJames NealGWGAssists: Jake Walman, Tyler Bozak · Tip-in, 0.26 xG4–3
- P3 19:00STLRobert ThomasENAssists: Colton Parayko, Joel Hofer · Wrist, 0.76 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:50SJSLane Pederson: Interference2 min
- P1 5:46STLPavel Buchnevich: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 5:46STLVladimir Tarasenko: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 6:37STLIvan Barbashev: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 15:49SJSMario Ferraro: Holding2 min
- P2 5:09SJSJasper Weatherby: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:08SJSJaycob Megna: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:52STLKlim Kostin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Kyrou – Thomas10:16
xG 0.62–0.19 (76%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Barbashev – Kostin6:12
xG 0.33–0.11 (75%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Neal – Bozak – Neighbours4:22
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Perron – Saad – Buchnevich2:26
xG 0.02–0.10 (16%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Parayko11:47
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug13:37
xG 0.63–0.32 (67%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Walman – Mikkola7:17
xG 0.47–0.38 (56%)attempts 9–6goals 2–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Balcers – Barabanov8:35
xG 0.37–0.17 (68%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Cogliano – Bonino – Merkley6:37
xG 0.24–0.22 (53%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Pederson – Gadjovich – Weatherby8:09
xG 0.18–0.36 (33%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Couture – Dahlen – Eklund10:09
xG 0.11–0.77 (12%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Ferraro14:54
xG 0.77–0.35 (69%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Merkley – Kniazev3:32
xG 0.03–0.01 (84%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Megna – Meloche4:48
xG 0.03–0.11 (22%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).