Fri, Nov 5, 2021·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 09 | 05 | 14 | 118 |
| WPG | 27 | 211 | 115 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:47WPGPaul StastnyAssists: Andrew Copp, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 2:23WPGNeal PionkPPGWGAssists: Kyle Connor, Andrew Copp · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 13:48WPGDominic ToninatoAssists: Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 15:17WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Nate Schmidt, Evgeny Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–4
- P3 0:56CHIMacKenzie EntwistleSHAssists: Seth Jones, Kirby Dach · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 14:03WPGNikolaj EhlersUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:55CHIMike Hardman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 11:34WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 12:46CHIAlex DeBrincat: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:38WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:15CHIDylan Strome: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Gaudette – Entwistle5:54
xG 0.14–0.06 (69%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Carpenter – Gaudette – Entwistle3:40
xG 0.15–0.16 (49%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kane – Kubalik – Dach5:33
xG 0.18–0.41 (30%)attempts 3–4goals 0–2
- Toews – Kubalik – Dach5:09
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Murphy4:07
xG 0.17–0.09 (65%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Murphy – McCabe3:08
xG 0.02–0.02 (44%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- de Haan – McCabe4:28
xG 0.03–0.10 (23%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestConnor – Svechnikov – Dubois11:53
xG 0.91–0.14 (87%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Toninato – Harkins2:31
xG 0.39–0.03 (92%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Stastny – Copp – Ehlers11:45
xG 0.31–0.07 (81%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Lowry – Scheifele13:17
xG 0.48–0.33 (59%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Morrissey16:38
xG 1.13–0.28 (80%)attempts 20–9goals 3–0
- Beaulieu – Stanley2:58
xG 0.53–0.11 (83%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pionk15:37
xG 0.34–0.09 (79%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).