Fri, Nov 5, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
New York Rangers 5, Edmonton Oilers 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 110 | 311 | 14 | 00 | 525 |
| EDM | 113 | 19 | 315 | 12 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:53NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Nils Lundkvist, Sammy Blais · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 18:11EDMZach HymanAssists: Tyson Barrie, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 2:52NYRKevin RooneyAssists: Filip Chytil · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 4:11NYRChris KreiderAssists: Adam Fox, Barclay Goodrow · Snap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 6:56NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Ryan Strome, Artemi Panarin · Deflected, 0.27 xG4–1
- P2 14:41EDMJesse PuljujarviPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Darnell Nurse · Slap, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 1:00EDMTyson BarriePPAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 3:35EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Duncan Keith, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–4
- P3 7:18NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–4
- P3 17:01EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Tyson Barrie, Leon Draisaitl · Backhand, 0.12 xG5–5
- OT 3:27EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Darnell Nurse, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.14 xG5–6
Penalties (4)
- P2 5:36EDMZack Kassian: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:04EDMLeon Draisaitl: Interference2 min
- P2 12:53NYRRyan Strome: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:24NYRMika Zibanejad: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBlais – Rooney – Chytil10:52
xG 0.83–0.34 (71%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Strome – Panarin – Kakko13:06
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- McKegg – Hunt – Lafrenière6:36
xG 0.07–0.60 (11%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Goodrow13:49
xG 0.46–1.01 (31%)attempts 7–22goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren18:03
xG 0.72–0.46 (61%)attempts 11–21goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Trouba4:40
xG 0.12–0.17 (42%)attempts 3–7goals 1–1
- Nemeth – Lundkvist11:13
xG 0.27–0.63 (30%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Yamamoto13:41
xG 1.19–0.28 (81%)attempts 23–10goals 1–0
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi17:33
xG 0.86–0.70 (55%)attempts 22–12goals 2–2
- Turris – Perlini – Ryan3:54
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kassian – Foegele – Ryan4:56
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Nurse16:44
xG 1.22–0.36 (77%)attempts 24–11goals 2–1
- Keith – Bouchard4:40
xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Keith – Ceci18:01
xG 0.60–0.48 (55%)attempts 19–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).