Fri, Nov 5, 2021·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Nashville Predators 3, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 114 | 211 | 03 | 328 |
| VAN | 113 | 19 | 06 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:49NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Mikael Granlund · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 19:51VANBrock BoeserAssists: Travis Hamonic, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 10:08VANNils HoglanderAssists: Bo Horvat, Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 12:26NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Mikael Granlund · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 19:15NSHPhilip TomasinoPPGWGAssists: Luke Kunin, Tommy Novak · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:25VANNils Hoglander: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:00NSHDante Fabbro: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:44NSHPhilip Tomasino: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:47VANLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:47NSHTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:09NSHMattias Ekholm: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:26VANTyler Myers: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:08VANBo Horvat: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:58NSHAlexandre Carrier: Interference2 min
- P3 12:19NSHNick Cousins: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Granlund – Kunin7:43
xG 0.66–0.09 (88%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Novak – Tolvanen – Tomasino4:21
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Johansen – Cousins – Tolvanen4:39
xG 0.02–0.09 (16%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Johansen – Cousins – Grimaldi5:19
xG 0.06–0.29 (18%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenning – Harpur10:03
xG 0.74–0.66 (53%)attempts 11–15goals 0–2
- Josi – Fabbro15:18
xG 0.49–0.47 (51%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Carrier13:18
xG 0.14–0.28 (33%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – Pettersson2:30
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Miller – Garland – Pettersson7:48
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Dickinson – Boeser – Podkolzin3:59
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Hoglander11:04
xG 0.61–0.64 (49%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hughes7:12
xG 0.42–0.25 (62%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Schenn – Poolman3:58
xG 0.16–0.03 (85%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Ekman-Larsson2:14
xG 0.11–0.02 (87%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).