Fri, Nov 5, 2021·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
New Jersey Devils 2, Los Angeles Kings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 010 | 07 | 26 | 00 | 223 |
| LAK | 09 | 18 | 110 | 12 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 19:58LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Dustin Brown, Anze Kopitar · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 3:19NJDJesper BrattAssists: Andreas Johnsson, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P3 16:20LAKArthur KaliyevPPAssists: Matt Roy, Andreas Athanasiou · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 19:36NJDPavel ZachaAssists: Ryan Graves, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- OT 0:42LAKAlex IafalloGWGAssists: Phillip Danault · Slap, 0.41 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:04LAKAdrian Kempe: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 14:18NJDJesper Bratt: Interference2 min
- P1 18:29NJDRyan Graves: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:18NJDTomas Tatar: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:45LAKAlexander Edler: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:46LAKBrendan Lemieux: Interference2 min
- P3 7:06NJDDamon Severson: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:41NJDDamon Severson: Interference2 min
- P3 16:14NJDDamon Severson: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kupari won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJohnsson – Bratt – Hischier9:26
xG 0.71–0.10 (87%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Zacha – Mercer – Holtz8:40
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Tatar – Vesey – McLeod6:17
xG 0.12–0.36 (25%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Graves13:46
xG 1.03–0.65 (61%)attempts 19–12goals 1–1
- Subban – Siegenthaler12:35
xG 0.56–0.19 (74%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Subban – Smith4:22
xG 0.07–0.23 (23%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGrundstrom – Moore – Kupari8:43
xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Athanasiou – Lemieux – Lizotte2:17
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Danault – Athanasiou – Iafallo8:19
xG 0.28–0.16 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Lemieux – Lizotte – Kaliyev4:57
xG 0.05–0.16 (23%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Clague9:50
xG 0.55–0.35 (61%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Maatta – Roy14:09
xG 0.47–0.28 (63%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Edler – Roy2:22
xG 0.10–0.09 (55%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).