Sat, Nov 6, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Boston Bruins 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 113 | 08 | 123 | 244 |
| TOR | 19 | 218 | 29 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:37BOSTaylor HallPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 12:21TORJohn TavaresAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 14:59TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Mitch Marner · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–2
- P2 18:54TORAuston MatthewsPPGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner · Slap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 2:53TORJohn TavaresAssists: William Nylander, Rasmus Sandin · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–4
- P3 8:29BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brad Marchand · Slap, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 19:17TORMitch MarnerENAssists: John Tavares, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.77 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:18BOSConnor Clifton: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:23TORJake Muzzin: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P2 0:40TORJohn Tavares: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:34BOSDavid Pastrnak: Boarding2 min
- P2 14:35BOSMatt Grzelcyk: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:03BOSBrad Marchand: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:32TORJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:44TORMichael Bunting: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Coyle – Hall9:24
xG 0.57–0.40 (59%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Nosek – Frederic – Kuhlman9:57
xG 0.43–0.37 (54%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Haula – Lazar – DeBrusk8:10
xG 0.44–0.41 (52%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak10:40
xG 0.42–0.46 (47%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy8:06
xG 0.57–0.33 (63%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Carlo7:20
xG 0.53–0.33 (61%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Forbort – Clifton3:50
xG 0.20–0.03 (86%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Bunting – Matthews11:12
xG 0.68–0.38 (64%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Spezza – Simmonds – Ritchie5:58
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Engvall – Kase – Kampf4:24
xG 0.11–0.18 (38%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Kase – Kampf3:01
xG 0.13–0.23 (36%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Dermott14:39
xG 0.74–0.51 (59%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Liljegren – Sandin11:18
xG 0.37–0.31 (54%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Brodie16:13
xG 0.71–1.10 (39%)attempts 12–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).