Sat, Nov 6, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Vegas Golden Knights 5, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 01 | 310 | 27 | 518 |
| MTL | 220 | 09 | 09 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:18MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–1
- P1 18:49MTLTyler ToffoliAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Nick Suzuki · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 5:16VGKAlex PietrangeloPPAssists: Shea Theodore, Chandler Stephenson · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 10:24VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Nicolas Roy, Nicolas Hague · Backhand, 0.25 xG2–2
- P2 12:00VGKDylan CoghlanPPGWGAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 17:09VGKChandler StephensonENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.78 xG4–2
- P3 19:25VGKBrayden McNabbENAssists: Robin Lehner · Wrist, 0.44 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:57MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:57VGKNicolas Hague: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:33VGKNicolas Roy: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:20VGKNicolas Roy: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:05MTLBen Chiarot: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 10:41MTLCedric Paquette: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:04VGKWilliam Carrier: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:22VGKJake Leschyshyn: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:24MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:24VGKJake Leschyshyn: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Stephenson – Carrier7:59
xG 0.29–0.23 (56%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Janmark – Kolesar – Leschyshyn4:13
xG 0.09–0.07 (59%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Janmark – Amadio – Kolesar4:22
xG 0.01–0.04 (25%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Amadio – Howden – Rondbjerg3:34
xG 0.07–0.10 (41%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hague11:10
xG 0.49–0.15 (77%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- McNabb – Coghlan12:51
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Martinez – Theodore12:33
xG 0.37–1.10 (25%)attempts 8–22goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Lehkonen – Dvorak5:49
xG 0.88–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Anderson – Evans7:18
xG 0.25–0.11 (70%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Gallagher – Suzuki10:00
xG 0.51–0.42 (54%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Belzile – Paquette – Pezzetta4:57
xG 0.11–0.03 (79%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Chiarot14:49
xG 1.03–0.23 (82%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Wideman – Romanov10:09
xG 0.41–0.14 (74%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Kulak – Romanov2:03
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).