Sat, Nov 6, 2021·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Florida Panthers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 06 | 214 | 012 | 232 |
| FLA | 415 | 08 | 19 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:28FLAAnthony DuclairPPAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Brandon Montour · Slap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 10:02FLAFrank VatranoPPAssists: Brandon Montour, Anthony Duclair · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 13:14FLAAnton LundellGWGAssists: Owen Tippett, Radko Gudas · Snap, 0.13 xG0–3
- P1 15:28FLAPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Anthony Duclair · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–4
- P2 7:01CARJesper FastAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Vincent Trocheck · Snap, 0.17 xG1–4
- P2 15:20CARVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.28 xG2–4
- P3 19:01FLAAnthony DuclairENAssists: Carter Verhaeghe · Snap, 0.78 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:37CARJaccob Slavin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 3:04FLAGustav Forsling: Hooking2 min
- P1 3:29CARAndrei Svechnikov: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:10CARSteven Lorentz: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:49CARTony DeAngelo: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:17FLAGustav Forsling: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:22FLARyan Lomberg: Charging5 min · PPG
- P2 12:22FLARyan Lomberg: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 5:59FLABrandon Montour: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:14CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Holding2 min
- P3 19:01CARTony DeAngelo: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Luostarinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Lorentz – Jarvis6:04
xG 0.86–0.10 (89%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Martinook – Aho5:36
xG 0.31–0.10 (75%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Stepan – Martinook – Lorentz2:41
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Jarvis2:37
xG 0.08–0.16 (33%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Bear7:04
xG 0.60–0.03 (95%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Skjei – Bear6:29
xG 0.43–0.41 (51%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Slavin – DeAngelo6:38
xG 0.68–0.71 (49%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Tippett – Lundell7:47
xG 0.99–0.16 (86%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Duclair – Verhaeghe – Luostarinen9:20
xG 0.61–0.36 (63%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Reinhart – Vatrano – Mamin6:34
xG 0.58–0.40 (59%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Marchment – Lomberg5:13
xG 0.10–0.62 (14%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad13:03
xG 1.42–0.47 (75%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Gudas – Forsling10:10
xG 0.67–0.61 (52%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Gudas – Weegar2:01
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).