Sat, Nov 6, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Minnesota Wild 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 111 | 113 | 212 | 04 | 3 | 540 |
| PIT | 210 | 116 | 110 | 03 | 2 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:44MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Alex Goligoski, Frederick Gaudreau · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 16:33PITKasperi KapanenAssists: Jason Zucker, Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 19:04PITKasperi KapanenAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Jason Zucker · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 13:34PITJake GuentzelAssists: Bryan Rust, Mike Matheson · Snap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 16:57MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 8:45PITKasperi KapanenAssists: Bryan Rust, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 16:41MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Frederick Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 19:57MINRyan HartmanAssists: Mathew Dumba, Adam Beckman · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. PIT Jake Guentzel scored
- 2. MIN Frederick Gaudreau stopped
- 3. PIT Kris Letang stopped
- 4. MIN Kevin Fiala scored
- 5. PIT Bryan Rust scored
- 6. MIN Kirill Kaprizov scored
- 7. PIT Kasperi Kapanen stopped
- 8. MIN Nick Bjugstad scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:19MINMarcus Foligno: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:55PITDrew O'Connor: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:31PITTeddy Blueger: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:43MINConnor Dewar: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Blueger won the faceoff against Gaudreau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Duhaime – Sturm8:46
xG 0.42–0.31 (58%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Hartman – Gaudreau – Kaprizov11:20
xG 0.37–0.28 (57%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Foligno – Fiala – Eriksson Ek9:43
xG 0.43–0.51 (46%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Rau – Dewar – Beckman6:35
xG 0.08–0.32 (20%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Brodin2:28
xG 0.36–0.05 (87%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Merrill12:25
xG 0.63–0.47 (58%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Spurgeon14:30
xG 0.60–0.95 (39%)attempts 13–17goals 1–3
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Heinen – O'Connor6:42
xG 0.52–0.02 (97%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Zucker – Kapanen – Rodrigues10:56
xG 0.48–0.46 (51%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Blueger – McGinn – Aston-Reese13:31
xG 0.52–0.58 (47%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Carter – Rust – Guentzel11:25
xG 0.70–0.78 (47%)attempts 13–17goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Matheson18:40
xG 1.09–0.63 (63%)attempts 19–15goals 2–1
- Friedman – Riikola10:13
xG 0.77–0.58 (57%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Marino – Joseph15:05
xG 0.55–0.66 (46%)attempts 14–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).