Sat, Nov 6, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 012 | 214 | 06 | 232 |
| WSH | 06 | 011 | 115 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:18PHIDerick BrassardAssists: Cam Atkinson, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 15:44PHISean CouturierGWGAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.38 xG2–0
- P3 6:02WSHBrett LeasonAssists: Connor McMichael, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:10PHIScott Laughton: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:06WSHNick Jensen: Interference2 min
- P2 5:28PHIDerick Brassard: Interference2 min
- P3 13:40PHINick Seeler: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Couturier – Konecny14:34
xG 1.60–0.40 (80%)attempts 21–6goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Lindblom10:31
xG 0.57–0.20 (74%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Brassard – Atkinson – Farabee7:43
xG 0.26–0.12 (69%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Thompson – Brown – MacEwen6:47
xG 0.06–0.40 (13%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Sanheim15:36
xG 1.76–0.37 (82%)attempts 22–13goals 1–0
- Braun – Provorov16:01
xG 0.48–0.38 (56%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Yandle – Seeler8:34
xG 0.17–0.61 (22%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Sprong5:29
xG 0.49–0.17 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Leason – McMichael – Lapierre2:14
xG 0.15–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Eller – Sprong – Lapierre6:43
xG 0.12–0.00 (99%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Eller – Wilson – Sheary3:47
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry13:22
xG 1.08–0.53 (67%)attempts 22–17goals 1–1
- Jensen – Fehérváry2:41
xG 0.10–0.02 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Schultz – van Riemsdyk12:34
xG 0.37–0.82 (31%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).