Sat, Nov 6, 2021·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Colorado Avalanche 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 113 | 19 | 014 | 236 |
| CBJ | 19 | 017 | 316 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:44CBJGabriel CarlssonAssists: Jakub Voracek, Egor Chinakhov · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 16:16COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Nazem Kadri, Samuel Girard · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 13:16COLAndre BurakovskyUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 13:37CBJAlexandre TexierAssists: Eric Robinson, Elvis Merzlikins · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 18:58CBJCole SillingerGWGAssists: Egor Chinakhov, Vladislav Gavrikov · Deflected, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 19:30CBJOliver BjorkstrandENAssists: Boone Jenner, Vladislav Gavrikov · Snap, 0.60 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:16CBJKevin Stenlund: Holding2 min
- P1 14:11CBJBoone Jenner: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:33COLDarren Helm: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:09COLDarren Helm: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:57CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:52COLJack Johnson: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:29CBJOliver Bjorkstrand: Holding2 min
- P3 7:45COLRyan Murray: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roslovic won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Burakovsky – O'Connor7:23
xG 0.63–0.33 (66%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:01
xG 1.30–1.00 (57%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Helm – Megna – Jost7:28
xG 0.18–0.44 (29%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Compher – Sherwood – Ranta6:23
xG 0.01–0.29 (4%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard8:36
xG 0.93–0.50 (65%)attempts 11–10goals 1–2
- Girard – Byram3:28
xG 0.14–0.20 (42%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Toews – Byram11:25
xG 0.71–0.83 (46%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Chinakhov – Sillinger10:46
xG 0.98–0.43 (69%)attempts 14–7goals 2–1
- Kuraly – Texier – Robinson9:58
xG 0.61–0.64 (49%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Hofmann – Roslovic – Stenlund6:34
xG 0.15–0.29 (34%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Jenner – Bjorkstrand9:48
xG 0.53–1.01 (35%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBean – Bayreuther5:55
xG 0.47–0.15 (75%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Carlsson – Peeke7:05
xG 0.29–0.01 (96%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Werenski – Gavrikov4:31
xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).