Sun, Nov 7, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 113 | 07 | 120 | 240 |
| DET | 37 | 110 | 113 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:48VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 8:17DETLucas RaymondPPAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Filip Zadina · Snap, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 10:13DETRobby FabbriPPAssists: Pius Suter, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P1 18:28DETPius SuterGWGAssists: Filip Hronek, Nick Leddy · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 10:39DETVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Mitchell Stephens, Sam Gagner · Snap, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 4:25VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Nicolas Roy · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 19:49DETTyler BertuzziENAssists: Sam Gagner, Filip Hronek · Slap, 0.65 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:18DETNick Leddy: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:25VGKAlex Pietrangelo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 8:40VGKWilliam Carrier: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:30DETMitchell Stephens: Holding2 min
- P2 11:15DETSam Gagner: Interference2 min
- P3 8:34VGKKeegan Kolesar: Holding2 min
- P3 12:28VGKKeegan Kolesar: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestAmadio – Howden – Rondbjerg7:16
xG 0.53–0.13 (80%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Stephenson – Carrier8:04
xG 0.52–0.24 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Smith – Marchessault – Roy8:37
xG 0.39–0.71 (36%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Janmark – Kolesar – Leschyshyn7:47
xG 0.32–0.70 (31%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hague8:33
xG 0.40–0.11 (78%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Pietrangelo – Theodore2:14
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo2:13
xG 0.20–0.12 (62%)attempts 5–2goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFabbri – Suter – Zadina10:17
xG 0.83–0.24 (78%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond9:17
xG 0.99–0.73 (58%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Erne – Smith – Rasmussen7:18
xG 0.15–0.08 (66%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Gagner – Namestnikov – Stephens6:49
xG 0.23–0.51 (31%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeKeyser – Seider14:31
xG 1.46–0.67 (69%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Staal – Lindstrom8:59
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Leddy – Hronek14:09
xG 0.63–0.84 (43%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).