Sun, Nov 7, 2021·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Dallas Stars 3, Vancouver Canucks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 111 | 18 | 19 | 328 |
| VAN | 011 | 416 | 29 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:35DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 2:19VANJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 6:37VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 8:10VANBo HorvatAssists: Tanner Pearson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–3
- P2 9:38DALLuke GlendeningAssists: Jason Robertson, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 15:45VANVasily PodkolzinGWGAssists: Conor Garland, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 3:23DALRyan SuterPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Tyler Seguin · Deflected, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 13:44VANJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson · Slap, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 17:39VANBrock BoeserENAssists: Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.76 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:09VANQuinn Hughes: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:12DALMiro Heiskanen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:49DALRadek Faksa: Kneeing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:57DALJoel Kiviranta: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:46DALRyan Suter: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:40VANOliver Ekman-Larsson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:40VANOliver Ekman-Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:27DALJani Hakanpää: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:41DALRyan Suter: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFaksa – Gurianov – Kiviranta5:35
xG 0.14–0.06 (69%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Comeau – Glendening – Raffl8:16
xG 0.22–0.15 (60%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson9:00
xG 0.26–0.50 (35%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin10:10
xG 0.71–1.03 (41%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Heiskanen2:40
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Suter – Lindell2:53
xG 0.03–0.01 (81%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Harley8:53
xG 0.32–0.31 (51%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPearson – Horvat – Hoglander11:23
xG 1.13–0.65 (63%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Dickinson – Garland – Podkolzin10:33
xG 0.50–0.14 (78%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Pettersson10:25
xG 0.32–0.19 (63%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Dowling – Bailey – Lammikko3:55
xG 0.01–0.30 (3%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPoolman – Hughes8:24
xG 0.66–0.09 (88%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Poolman3:06
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Myers – Ekman-Larsson12:34
xG 0.68–0.65 (51%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).