Mon, Nov 8, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Los Angeles Kings 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 212 | 18 | 29 | 529 |
| TOR | 06 | 114 | 014 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:52LAKTrevor MooreAssists: Carl Grundstrom, Rasmus Kupari · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 14:21LAKAndreas AthanasiouGWGAssists: Phillip Danault, Alex Iafallo · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 1:51TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Mitch Marner, William Nylander · Slap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 13:56LAKPhillip DanaultAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Alex Iafallo · Deflected, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 15:30LAKPhillip DanaultUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–1
- P3 16:13LAKAdrian KempeENAssists: Dustin Brown, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.76 xG5–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:49TORTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:21TORMichael Bunting: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 1:05LAKTrevor Moore: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:11TORMichael Bunting: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:39LAKAdrian Kempe: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Kupari
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Athanasiou – Iafallo11:52
xG 1.27–0.12 (92%)attempts 15–7goals 3–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Kempe12:38
xG 0.36–0.78 (31%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
- Lemieux – Lizotte – Kaliyev8:00
xG 0.13–0.61 (18%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Grundstrom – Moore – Kupari9:51
xG 0.21–0.90 (19%)attempts 5–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestAnderson – Bjornfot17:26
xG 1.27–0.75 (63%)attempts 19–18goals 4–0
- Maatta – Anderson2:13
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Edler – Roy2:49
xG 0.08–0.20 (28%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestEngvall – Kase – Kampf9:30
xG 0.80–0.20 (80%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Nylander – Bunting – Matthews13:12
xG 0.74–0.27 (73%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Spezza – Simmonds – Ritchie9:09
xG 0.51–0.18 (74%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Tavares – Marner – Matthews2:00
xG 0.10–0.08 (57%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiljegren – Sandin14:23
xG 1.25–0.31 (80%)attempts 24–10goals 0–1
- Muzzin – Brodie15:41
xG 1.23–0.45 (73%)attempts 25–15goals 0–0
- Rielly – Dermott14:02
xG 0.27–1.13 (19%)attempts 9–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).