Mon, Nov 8, 2021·Madison Square Garden, New York
Florida Panthers 3, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 011 | 017 | 317 | 345 |
| NYR | 29 | 26 | 03 | 418 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:52NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–1
- P1 19:54NYRAdam FoxSHAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Mika Zibanejad · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 12:48NYRK'Andre MillerAssists: Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–3
- P2 13:18NYRRyan StromeGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–4
- P3 0:20FLAEetu LuostarinenAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Mason Marchment · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–4
- P3 18:34FLASam ReinhartAssists: Owen Tippett, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 19:20FLAMaxim MaminAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Aleksander Barkov · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:55NYRPatrik Nemeth: Interference2 min
- P1 6:31FLACarter Verhaeghe: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:18NYRKevin Rooney: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 3:27FLABrandon Montour: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:09FLAAaron Ekblad: Holding2 min
- P2 12:09NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Marchment – Luostarinen6:26
xG 0.61–0.15 (81%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Reinhart – Vatrano – Mamin5:51
xG 0.52–0.09 (86%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Vatrano – Tippett3:34
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Tippett – Lundell5:26
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestConnauton – Montour7:57
xG 0.89–0.09 (91%)attempts 17–2goals 0–0
- Connauton – Gudas4:32
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Montour – Forsling7:53
xG 0.45–0.03 (95%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Strome – Panarin – Kakko10:02
xG 0.46–0.46 (50%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Goodrow2:22
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Blais10:05
xG 0.18–0.48 (27%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Gauthier – Lafrenière5:46
xG 0.21–0.63 (25%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Nemeth – Trouba3:14
xG 0.00–0.36 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–1
- Nemeth – Lundkvist11:04
xG 0.07–0.47 (13%)attempts 2–18goals 0–0
- Trouba – Miller15:40
xG 0.55–1.18 (32%)attempts 11–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).