Tue, Nov 9, 2021·TD Garden, Boston
Ottawa Senators 2, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 111 | 16 | 010 | 227 |
| BOS | 014 | 315 | 07 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:14OTTZachary SanfordAssists: Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 5:12BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 10:58BOSDerek ForbortAssists: Charlie Coyle, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 13:09OTTNikita ZaitsevAssists: Tyler Ennis, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 18:40BOSPatrice BergeronGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy · Snap, 0.22 xG2–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:47BOSCharlie McAvoy: Holding2 min
- P1 12:43OTTDrake Batherson: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:14BOSCharlie McAvoy: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:42BOSCharlie Coyle: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:27OTTErik Brannstrom: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:06BOSDavid Pastrnak: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:46OTTArtem Zub: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:10OTTAlex Formenton: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:10BOSConnor Clifton: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:24BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:24OTTThomas Chabot: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:11BOSJack Studnicka: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:42BOSTaylor Hall: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPaul – Batherson – Stützle6:06
xG 0.57–0.13 (81%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Sanford – Norris – Tkachuk7:47
xG 0.31–0.36 (46%)attempts 4–12goals 1–1
- Ennis – Tierney – Formenton5:21
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zub7:20
xG 0.58–0.32 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Del Zotto – Zaitsev2:46
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Brown – Brannstrom4:26
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak10:17
xG 0.47–0.18 (72%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Lazar – Nosek – Frederic5:58
xG 0.22–0.04 (85%)attempts 10–2goals 0–1
- Haula – DeBrusk – Studnicka7:42
xG 0.19–0.32 (37%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Smith – Coyle – Hall5:44
xG 0.28–0.58 (32%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Carlo2:40
xG 0.31–0.12 (72%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy5:42
xG 0.13–0.02 (89%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Forbort – Clifton3:27
xG 0.13–0.02 (84%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).